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Natural Gas Fundamentals

 

 

80% of rigs in the US today drill for Natural Gas.

 

 

Many industry experts believe that 2009 is a very good year to acquire domestic natural gas production. Pricing is lower than it has been in a number of years, yet demand and supply are only off slightly from the levels they have been at in the past 5 years. Low pricing is greatly affected by the uncertainty in the US economy and a slight excess in natural gas inventories. Looking at key statistical data shows that this imbalance will soon be overcome and pricing will move back to appropriate levels in the near future, especially when the US economy begins to recover. In the short term, it looks like natural gas will be priced relatively low, making it potentially one of the best times in history to buy producing natural gas assets.

Some Key Facts on Natural Gas:

  1. In the last 10 years, over 90% of the new electric capacity built in the US has been from Natural Gas fired generation.
  2. Natural Gas now accounts for approximately 20% of the energy used to create electricity in the US.
  3. Approximately 84% of Natural gas used in the US is produced domestically.
  4. Only 2% of Natural Gas used in the US comes from overseas.
  5. Natural Gas heats more homes in the US than all other energy sources combined.
  6. The Obama administration pledged to have the US in a position that we will require no oil imports for our energy needs in 10 years. That will make domestic, clean burning, Natural Gas a highly important source to reach that goal.

One of the best ways to get a read on supply of Natural Gas is to look at the rig counts in the U.S. Rig counts tell us where operators are in drilling for new production which is important to offset the natural decline in producing wells.

  1. 80% of rigs in the US today drill for Natural Gas.
  2. It takes 4 times the number of rigs today to produce about the same gas volumes as it did in 1989.
  3. In September 2008 there were over 2000 rigs drilling in the US. As of July 2009 there were less than 800 rigs drilling. This is the fastest drawdown in US history.
  4. The current rig count of less than 750 is the lowest it has been since 1999.

Historical Well Head Pricing for Natural Gas (Yearly Average)

2003 -
$5.38
2006 -
$7.24
2004 -
$6.14
2007 -
$6.84
2005 -
$7.32
2008 -
$7.58
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